LexNextThe Lexington
Policy Blog
- The Goodhart Rule (From The International Economy)
In March 2021, Bloomberg BusinessWeek published an essay on economist Charles Goodhart’s 1975 law that “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” The examples cited in the Bloomberg article are interesting, but they are mostly through a regulatory and microeconomic prism. The most important use of Goodhart’s law might be [ Read More…]
- Loren B. Thompson, Ph.D
- Sierra Nevada Corp. Charts A Unique Course To Success In Aerospace & Defense (From Forbes)
There’s a lot of talk in the federal government about tapping “non-traditional” sources for imaginative innovations. Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) is one of those rare contractors that was non-traditional long before it was fashionable. The company was acquired in 1994 by Eren and Fatih Ozmen, Turkish immigrants who came to America as students and have now become billionaires as a [ Read More…]
- Loren B. Thompson, Ph.D
- Army Aviation: There’s More To Future Vertical Lift Than The Airframes (From Forbes)
Sometime later this year the U.S. Army will select a rotorcraft to replace its ubiquitous Black Hawk as part of a program called Future Vertical Lift. There has been much talk in the defense trade press about the airframes competing for the award. However, a big part of what will make Future Vertical Lift a gamechanger isn’t about the airframes, [ Read More…]
- For Finland And Sweden, The Time For Neutrality May Be Over (From RealClearWorld)
Preventing NATO expansion is one of Vladimir Putin’s primary justifications for invading Ukraine. The war appears likely to backfire on this front, as Finland and Sweden seriously consider joining the alliance. On April 13, Finnish officials said there would be immediate debate in Helsinki about applying for NATO membership. The same day, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that Finland would reach a final decision in the next few weeks, and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson confirmed that Sweden was [ Read More…]
- The Undeclared U.S.-China Technology War (From 1945)
For some years now, an undeclared war has been going on between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Unlike the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this war is not about territory. Rather, it is about acquiring advantages in a set of key information technologies The Chinese Communist Party has a plan to win this war based on creating and supporting a set of so-called national champions. Unfortunately, the U.S. Congress is pushing anti-trust legislation that would [ Read More…]
- Putin Learns A Lesson Washington Knows All Too Well: Military Power Can Kill People, But It Can’t Change Them (From Forbes)
Vladimir Putin apparently launch Russia’s invasion of Ukraine believing that resistance would collapse quickly. The opposite has occurred: the Ukrainians fought back fiercely to defend their culture and identity. Moscow now realizes if it wants to pacify Ukraine, it will have to wipe out much of the population. The lesson is that while military power can be very efficient at dispatching troublesome locals, it is nearly powerless to destroy who they are or what they believe. The Unites States has [ Read More…]
- Ukraine Sanctions: Now Is The Time To Jettison Russian In-Space Propulsion From All Future Satellites (From Forbes)
Russia’s Fakel design bureau is the world leader in electric propulsion systems for maneuvering satellites in space. After this year’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russians declared they would stop selling such systems to the West, which was fine with countries already in the process of applying economic sanctions to Moscow. There are plenty of other sources for in-space propulsion systems. But since there is already a compelling reason for imposing sanctions, this would be a good time to permanently ban [ Read More…]
- Ukraine’s Postal Service Is Saving Lives And Needs U.S. Help
Since the war began, Ukraine’s Postal Service, Ukrposhta, has valiantly stood up to the Russians and provided vital services. Often wearing helmets, bulletproof vests, and carrying weapons while moving through bomb-ridden streets, Ukrposhta employees have delivered vast amounts of humanitarian aid, including much to the hard-hit eastern areas of the country, while continuing to deliver mail and packages.
- Production Of The V-22 Osprey Is Ending. The Pentagon Needs To Be Sure It Has Bought Enough. (From Forbes)
Production of the revolutionary V-22 Osprey tiltrotor is beginning to wrap up, with shutdown of the line likely sometime in the next several years. The aircraft has proven to be as versatile as its backers predicted, supporting distinctly different missions for the Marine Corps, the Navy and the Air Force. The problem with being unique, though, is that if the joint force runs out of usable tiltrotors, no backup aircraft can do the job as effectively. So military planners need [ Read More…]
- Five Reasons Why Germany Needs The EA-18G Growler (From 1945)
The German Air Force’s plan to procure an advanced U.S.-built airborne electronic attack aircraft, the EA-18G Growler, appears somewhat in doubt in the aftermath of Berlin’s decision to acquire 35 F-35As for that nation’s nuclear weapons deterrent role. There are five reasons why Germany should still move forward with its plan to acquire the Growler. First, as the current war in Europe demonstrates, electronic warfare and the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) will be critical to a high-end fight. [ Read More…]
- Events In Ukraine Change The Calculus On Anti-Tech Legislation (From RealClearMarkets)
The United States has a powerful weapon that Ukraine has unleashed on Russia without having to plead or ask for U.S. government permission: the American tech sector. The prompt and voluntary withdrawal of U.S. tech companies from Russia, and their assistance to Ukraine, is important to Ukraine. As Congress reflects on the next steps for Big Tech legislation, it should pause to consider what would happen if China were the dominant provider and innovator of tech services. That would make [ Read More…]
- The Nuclear Delusion At The Heart Of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (From Forbes)
The Biden administration has delivered its National Defense Strategy (NDS) to Congress. It will remain mostly secret, but mirrors the defense goals of the previous administration. That is unfortunate, because it continues to favor a nuclear posture that relies solely on the threat of retaliation to prevent a large-scale nuclear attack on the American homeland from China or Russia. There is no provision for active defense against other major nuclear powers. This approach to addressing the sole existential threat to [ Read More…]
- Five Reasons Cutting Back On The F-35 Stealth Fighter Is A Big Mistake (From 1945)
The Biden administration has confounded defense observers by proposing a 35% cut in F-35 fighter orders from the plan for fiscal 2023. F-35 is the only next-generation combat aircraft the U.S. currently has in production, and it is expected to replace most of the tactical aircraft operated by the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps–not to mention those of a dozen allies. The administration has yet to offer a coherent explanation of why now is the right time to cut [ Read More…]