The defense industry will need to consolidate if demand for its products continues softening in the years ahead. Because Pentagon policymakers are ill-disposed to managing sector rationalization, it will probably be driven by who wins or loses the handful of big programs that are still up for grabs. The outcome of the Army’s Joint Light Tactical Vehicle competition will reshape the military-vehicle segment of the market and the outcome of the Navy’s Next Generation Jammer competition will determine how the military-electronics segment necks down to a smaller number of players. How the Navy’s version of the F-35 fighter fares will also be critical, because if the program of record unfolds as presently planned, Boeing will be squeezed out of the domestic fighter market, leaving Lockheed Martin dominant in the tactical-aircraft segment. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
Find Archived Articles: