On October 7, Polish border troops reported being fired upon by their counterparts from Belarus. Tensions have also been rising on the border between the two countries as a surge of migrants has created a building humanitarian crisis simultaneously with the sensitive security situation. But these may be just the foreshocks of a much larger earthquake, a symptom of the extent to which Belarus has been more or less reabsorbed into the orbit of Russia. Without backing from Moscow, it is likely that Lukashenko would not attempt to antagonize Poland (which has four times the population). Ultimately, Belarus has more or less ceased to function as an independent entity. Prior to the protests that nearly ousted Lukashenko in 2020, there had at least been an effort to maintain a sense of separation from Moscow. Lukashenko was even perceived to be resistant to pressure from the Kremlin to establish an actual economic union. Now, not even that seems to be true. I have written more on this subject here.
Find Archived Articles: