Although many defense analysts sound gloomy about the outlook for military demand in the years ahead, a bottom may have been reached in the Obama defense downturn. First, threats are growing at a far faster pace than anticipated — creating pressure for increased defense spending. Second, defense hawks are regaining lost ground within the GOP, even as their party’s prospects for taking control of the Senate brighten. In the past, Republican control of the White House and Senate have been closely correlated with increased spending on weapons. It appears that the only thing standing between military contractors and a recovery in domestic demand is the 2011 Budget Control Act, which could see its strictures loosened in the year ahead. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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