The ultimate customer for defense-industry output is the U.S. political system. That’s who pays the bills. So we shouldn’t be surprised if electoral politics influences how much money goes to weapons, and where the weapons are made. President Biden will likely be no different from his predecessors in trying to leverage weapons spending to win votes for his party. That dynamic will be most apparent in battleground states where a shift of 1-2% of the electorate could be decisive in determining which candidate gets a state’s Electoral College votes. Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will all be up for grabs in 2024, and each of these swing states has a large population of defense contractors engaged in building weapons. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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