The Obama Administration’s blueprint for retooling the nation’s defense posture was unveiled yesterday, and senior Pentagon officials say that any tinkering with the particulars could throw the whole plan out of whack. We better hope that’s wrong, because long-term plans almost never stay on track in Washington. First, there’s the problem of getting Congress to approve them. Then there’s the possibility that elections will change who’s in charge. And let’s not forget that $600 billion sword of Damocles hanging over the defense sector called sequestration, which might not be repealed if the political system remains stalemated. Beyond those political impediments to implementing a blueprint, we need to keep in mind that enemies get a vote on any plans the Pentagon might have. One nuclear detonation or invasion can ruin an entire plan. So if you plan to invest money based on the details in the Pentagon’s “new look,” you might want to consider hedging those bets. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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