President Trump is so widely derided in the media that his reelection prospects may appear bleak. In fact, they are strong. Candidates who win election to the White House once tend to win it a second time if they choose to run. As president, Trump has presided over peace and prosperity. Candidates vying for the Democratic nomination are already reminding voters of why they voted for Trump in 2016. And people have grown accustomed to Trump’s style, even has he has grown more accustomed to the presidency. So reelection is likely if Trump decides he can put up with another four years. But what would a second term mean for global security? Probably the end of the road for the postwar order that Washington took the lead in fashioning. NATO would continue weakening, free trade would wane, and U.S. insistence on overseas partners adhering to democratic (with a small “d”) values would be less vociferous. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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