North Korea probably will not give up its nuclear arsenal, but in the aftermath of the Singapore summit, it is worth considering what such an outcome might mean for the U.S. missile defense program. If the North Korean nuclear threat to America’s homeland were removed, the Trump administration would likely focus missile defense efforts on the nuclear forces of China and Russia, which pose a much greater threat to America. That would tend to favor the Boeing/Raytheon Ground-based Midcourse Defense and the Lockheed Martin/Raytheon sea-based Aegis system. GMD can already intercept Chinese and Russian warheads aimed at America, but needs more and better interceptor missiles, along with additional deployment sites. Aegis needs upgrades to reliably intercept long-range warheads, but already has the advantage of mobility and (hence) greater survivability in a nuclear exchange. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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