President Trump isn’t likely to be removed from office through the impeachment process, but he could fail in his reelection bid if there is an economic recession. In such a scenario, leading to the seating of a chief executive from the Democratic Party, there would be major consequences for America’s military. Defense spending would probably plummet, and the mix of military spending would shift away from weapons. Military tensions with China and Iran would likely ease, even as military tensions with Russia worsened. And every facet of U.S. strategy would become more predictable as the gap between presidential convictions and official pronouncements of strategy narrowed. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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