The war isn’t over.
– Conventional phase seemed fast & decisive
– Unconventional phase looks slow & difficult
– ISR needs vary greatly between phases
• Many of the most significant lessons are secret.
– ISR capabilities tend to be classified
– U.S. not interested in advertising shortfalls to terrorists
– Bush Adm. less open than predecessors
• Review process distorted by transformation bias.
– Exaggerates role of jointness & special ops
– Neglects traditional virtues like air superiority
– Some recent setbacks traceable to subjective analysis
• Lessons will look a lot different if America loses.
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