Sometime later this year, the U.S. Air Force will announce which of two industry teams headed by Boeing and Northrop Grumman has been selected to build its next bomber. If you want to understand how it will go about making that decision, don’t look at the plane or the prospective providers — look at what the Air Force had to go through to make an award in its next-generation tanker competition several years ago. The initial round of competition got so fouled up that the service resolved to drain any element of subjectivity out of the selection process, which had the effect of making price the key discriminator between the two teams competing for the contract. The bomber competition is likely to turn out the same way, with the team willing to risk the most money by bidding aggressively in a position to prevail. I have written a commentary for Forbes here. –
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