The Pentagon’s lead agency for missile defense has embarked on a plan to keep up with the evolving North Korean nuclear threat by developing a Next Generation Interceptor.  Nothing wrong with that, except for this: most missile defense ideas don’t pan out, and yet the agency wants to stop upgrading the only system we already have that can actually intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles. This is a high-risk strategy driven more by budget constraints than common sense.  We need a backup [ Read More…]

Below is a synopsis of six particularly notable developments since March 2020 pertaining to threats against the U.S. electric grid from cyberattacks and related preventative actions. Presidential Executive Order on Securing the Bulk Power System. This May 1 directive determined, “The bulk-power system is a target for those seeking to commit malicious acts against the United States and its people, including malicious cyber activities, because a successful attack on our bulk-power system would present significant risks to our economy, human [ Read More…]

In recent weeks, Americans have been aghast and disgusted to see the dangerous extent to which we rely on China for personal protective equipment so vital to healthcare workers. The United States electric system has also become increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for essential items, including software components that can easily be attacked. A smooth functioning electric grid is essential to our way of life, as well as America’s health and safety.  As such, it is encouraging that a May [ Read More…]

The U.S. Army is leading what may prove to be the biggest rotorcraft program in history. Called Future Vertical Lift (FVL), it will replace over a dozen different helicopters in the joint fleet with thousands of new aircraft that have greater speed, range, reliability, survivability and lethality. All of these enhancements are needed to fight successfully in the future operational environment.  But there is another facet to FVL: revitalizing the domestic rotorcraft industry. Since the Cold War ended, few genuinely [ Read More…]

Its stealth, long-range sensors and ability to internally carry Raytheon’s AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile make it the world’s most effective air supremacy fighter, after the F-22. The Joint Strike Missile (JSM), and Lockheed’s Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) provide the F-35B with advanced long-range sea and land strike capabilities. There will soon likely be a JSM variant that will fit into the F-35B’s internal bomb bays, thus preserving its stealth. I have written more about this topic here.

The Pentagon writes lots of large, long-term contracts, particularly for major weapons platforms. Over the past several decades, the size and duration of contractors for services, particularly in the areas of information technology (IT) and networking, have increased significantly. The problem with massive, long-duration IT contracts is that the pace of technological change often makes them out-of-date almost from the start. An example of one such big contract is the Navy’s new contract to manage multiple IT networks, called the [ Read More…]

The Air Force has a vision of future fighter development that involves buying many different aircraft with limited service lives in small lots. Called the Digital Century Series, it is an attempt to leverage developments like digital engineering to stay ahead of the Chinese. It’s an exciting vision of what recent innovations can enable, but its operational implications are not so enticing. The tactical air fleet that results would be hard to synchronize in wartime, hard to sustain, hard to [ Read More…]

There is great news for the chorus of leading House Democrats and special interests who have been saying that the U.S. Postal Service will be broke and chaos will ensue just before the election: It’s not going to happen! The unimpeachable source for this information is the U.S. Postal Service itself which said in a May 8 legal filing it “expects that it will have sufficient liquidity to continue operating through at least May 2021.” Yet Democrats and special interests [ Read More…]

The future of airpower is not either manned or unmanned, but both. The balance between these two will be based on a deep appreciation for how best to use an expanding array of manned aerial systems, unmanned vehicles and air-delivered/air-breathing weapons in a future high-end air campaign. This new balance could reassert the dominance of airpower in high-end warfare, which has been challenged by advances in anti-access/area-denial capabilities. While it is tempting to pursue a future based on highly sophisticated [ Read More…]

There’s a lot of speculation about where defense spending is headed in the aftermath of the worst pandemic in a century, most of it negative. But the truth of the matter is that we have no idea where military outlays will stand a few years from today. Strategic surprises like Sputnik or 9-11 happen every 5-6 years, often shifting the vector of defense. Election outcomes change political priorities. Fluctuations in interest rates can have a big impact on what the [ Read More…]