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March 2012
For the last sixty years -- since Russia developed its first atomic weapons -- U.S. survival has depended on a strategic concept called deterrence. Lacking the ability to defend itself against a large-scale nuclear attack, Washington sought to discourage aggression by threatening devastating retaliation.
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3/30/2012
I spent the last several days at a conference on defense logistics and sustainment attended by senior military and leaders from the Department of Defense, including an appearance by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, along with representatives of the defense industrial
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3/29/2012
The Department of Defense has completed its latest wildly inaccurate estimate of how much it will cost to build and operate the F-35 fighter over fifty years. The F-35 is the Pentagon's biggest weapon program and it's the first military aircraft for which 50-year costs have been calculated, so
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3/29/2012
When Congress passed the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) it made a mistake with serious consequences for national security. Buried in this mammoth bill was a legislative bombshell. It has to do with a relatively arcane subject: ownership of technical data rights. But the consequences
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3/28/2012
Calls are intensifying for the United States, NATO and the Arab League to intervene to halt the bloodbath being perpetrated in Syria. Commentators on both the Left and Right are castigating the Obama Administration for its seeming hypocrisy in refusing to act in Syria having done so in Libya. The
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3/27/2012
One of the great tragedies of the wars of the last decade is the number of people in uniform suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury. Trauma is not a condition limited to individual soldiers, although they clearly suffer the most. Institutions can experience trauma
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3/26/2012
The F-35 fighter program is making steady progress towards fielding the best tactical aircraft ever built. You'd never know that, though, to listen to the way Pentagon managers describe it. Having aborted the quick production ramp-up required to minimize costs, they insist on citing cost projections
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3/26/2012
What does it tell you about a company's culture when its representatives repeatedly mislead the public about a matter material to its future business prospects? Does it indicate they are a worthy partner or supplier? Does it suggest they will bargain in good faith in disputes where deception and
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3/23/2012
The amusing thing about clichés is that they have a basis in reality. “Stuff” really does happen. So it can be hard to resist using clichéd phrases on occasion because they can be extremely apt.
Having read recent published reports regarding the breakdown in talks between the United States and
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Date:
3/23/2012
You don't need to be a cybernaut to see why attacks on America's information networks will be the next big security challenge that policymakers face. You just need to be a student of recent history. Why did Al Qaeda attack the World Trade Center and Pentagon on 9-11? Because its leaders realized
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3/22/2012
Over the past year, the credibility of the Department of Defense’s (DoD) acquisition system has been shaken repeatedly by disputes regarding the costs associated with a wide range of programs. First there was the report that the life cycle costs for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter -- that is the costs
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3/22/2012
On Monday, the House Armed Services Committee’s (HASC) Panel on Business Challenges within the Defense Industry released a report titled, not surprisingly, Challenges to Doing Business with the Department of Defense. Based on extensive hearings, discussions with experts and industry roundtables,
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3/21/2012
The April issue of Wired magazine contains a cover story by James Bamford describing plans for a secret National Security Agency data center in rural Utah. The article is full of fascinating facts and ideas, but its core thesis that the spy agency is engaged in a massive domestic spying
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3/21/2012
Because the Soviet Union is no more, it is relatively easy to both forget that it spent almost a decade in Afghanistan and dismiss the possibility that there is anything to be learned from Moscow’s experience in that long-benighted country. The Soviet Union was one of the big losers, on the world
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3/20/2012
Pressure on the defense industrial base is intensifying in the face of significant budget cuts and the looming threat of sequestration. Private sector companies are positioning themselves for a tighter market, increased competition and pressure on profits. In fact, the smartest companies began preparing
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3/19/2012
Among the many crackpot theories that have taken root in popular culture is the belief that defense contractor Lockheed Martin has undue influence over the deliberations of the federal government. I can tell you from watching the Bethesda-based behemoth up close for 20 years that company executives
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3/19/2012
The U.S. Army is at the start of what is likely to be one of the most wrenching operational, intellectual and organizational transitions in its modern history. The change most people focus on, that from “wartime” to “peacetime,” with an accompanying 100,000 reduction in active duty end strength
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3/16/2012
After being in denial for most of last year about the meaning of the Budget Control Act, Pentagon policymakers are beginning to realize that sequestration is probably going to happen. Under the law, that would result in the Pentagon's base budget being cut another $55 billion below the present
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3/16/2012
How much should the U.S. military cost? Obviously there are a number of factors that go into such an assessment such as wages and benefits, sophistication of equipment, activity rates, etc. But the size of the military tends to be the single most important determinant of cost. So, once you decide
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3/15/2012
There's an arcane debate unfolding in Congress right now that helps explain why America -- the world's leading proponent of free trade -- is headed towards a $600 billion trade deficit this year. Arcane, but not academic: when a country runs a trade deficit equal to four percent of its gross domestic
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3/14/2012
Defense strategy is always a balancing act between requirements and resources. Sometimes the scales are tipped in favor of requirements, as has been the case since September 11, and other times it tips in the direction of resource constraints as in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War and, it
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3/13/2012
The way the Department of Defense does math, two plus two never equals four. Take this simple equation. Add the growing threat from theater ballistic missiles to the Army’s search for relevance in the post Iraq/Afghanistan world and the answer should come up: expand the Army’s role in missile defense.
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3/12/2012
With demand for weapons headed downward in the Obama Administration's proposed five-year spending plan, now would seem like a good time for defense companies to consider diversifying into commercial work. Many of them have technology skills that seem fungible beyond defense, and the outlook for
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3/12/2012
Over the last several years, the Obama Administration has repeatedly delayed and restructured the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, arguing that more time was needed for testing before the program could enter high-rate production. One consequence of the delays has been to raise the cost of each
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3/9/2012
The Holy Grail of defense acquisition reform is a methodology, system, approach -- something -- that will enable the Department of Defense to procure equipment, platforms and services of quality relatively cheaply and quickly. Over the recent decades, DoD has careened from one fashion to another
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3/8/2012
Lexington Institute yesterday released a report on why reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank with a higher level of lending authority is necessary. Ex-Im, as it is called, is the official export credit agency of the federal government, and it plays a crucial role in financing exports of capital
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3/8/2012
There has been a lot of depressing news of late about defense budget cuts, terminated procurements, weapons systems that fail to perform as required and government ineptitude in overseeing competitions and writing contracts. So it is nice to be able to write about what looks to be a good news story.
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3/7/2012
Possibly the hardest problem in homeland security is detecting the presence of radioactive material -- the essential component in a nuclear device -- hidden in a vehicle, train car, cargo container, ship or airplane. The problem is even more challenging if the material is shielded or hidden amidst
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3/6/2012
Over the last five years, the MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft has demonstrated its operational value in 17 foreign deployments while becoming the safest rotorcraft in the Marine Corps fleet. The aircraft has performed raids in Iraq, disaster relief in Haiti, casualty evacuation in Jordan, counter-insurgency
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3/6/2012
The leadership of the U.S. Army claims to have learned important lessons from the failure of its multi-billion dollar effort to design and build the so-called Future Combat System (FCS). The FCS was supposed to be a “system of systems” with specially designed manned and unmanned ground and air vehicles,
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3/5/2012
When legendary conglomerate ITT split into three enterprises last year, Exhibit A in the case activist investors made for the break-up was the way they said defense operations were depressing the share price. I don't know whether becoming independent has "unlocked the value" of the commercial units,
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Date:
3/5/2012
Any way you look at it the current defense acquisition system is busted. New programs take too long to reach fruition and cost too much. Past and even present efforts to reform acquisition are examples of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The problem with most reformers is that they believe
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Date:
3/2/2012
Yesterday I did an investor call with Michael Lewis of Lazard Capital Markets concerning the outlook for the defense sector as military spending priorities shift. You can read Lazard's full report on my comments
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Date:
3/2/2012
What are the signs that the U.S. military is in decline? Stalemate on the battlefield. Withdrawal from long-occupied positions in the world. A shrinking force posture. By all these indicators, the U.S. military is in trouble.
An even more telling sign is when defense contractors defy their major,
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Date:
3/1/2012