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Early Warning Blog

The U.S. Air Force thinks it is facing an identity crisis. Despite having, arguably, the best people, equipment and practices and having performed well through two wars and numerous crises, it doesn’t. . . Read more

Date: 5/17/2013

Defense contractor Northrop Grumman announced a major expansion of its ongoing share repurchase program yesterday, signaling that the company's earnings per share (E.P.S.) are likely to increase for. . . Read more

Date: 5/17/2013

Last week Air Force Chief of Staff Mark Welsh committed the cardinal sin of telling Senators the truth about a politically charged subject in an open subcommittee session. Welsh suggested that one. . . Read more

Date: 5/16/2013

The U.S Navy deploys platforms and weapons systems of unmatched capabilities. There are no ships to match the power of the Nimitz and (soon to be deployed) Ford nuclear powered aircraft. . . Read more

Date: 5/16/2013

The discussion surrounding the new defense strategy with its “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region has focused largely on prospective changes to the deployment and posturing of U.S. forces in the region.. . . Read more

Date: 5/15/2013

For nearly 20 years, the federal government has used a formula to determine how much executive compensation it is willing to cover at its leading contractors. The ceiling is adjusted each year, and. . . Read more

Date: 5/15/2013

Times are tough for the U.S. Army. After twelve years of fighting -- the longest stretch of continuous combat in the Army's history -- its plans to rebuild are being shredded by across-the-board. . . Read more

Date: 5/14/2013

International Mine Countermeasures Exercise (IMCMEX) 2013, sponsored by U.S. Central Command and the Fifth Fleet, got underway last week in the Persian Gulf. The largest exercise of its kind, IMCMEX. . . Read more

Date: 5/13/2013

Last month, Army Secretary John McHugh and Chief of Staff Raymond Odierno warned the armed services committees in the House and Senate that their service's readiness is rapidly approaching a crisis. . . Read more

Date: 5/13/2013

It is easy to feel a sense of cognitive dissonance visiting Tiananmen Square. I went there because it was the site of one of the great, albeit unsuccessful, popular protests of the modern era. While. . . Read more

Date: 5/10/2013

In the aftermath of the December 14 shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School, it must have seemed obvious to Barack Obama that he needed to do something about gun control. He called it the worst. . . Read more

Date: 5/10/2013

As the Bible teaches us, it is impossible to make bricks without straw. It also is impossible to have a modern, capable military without money. When Pharaoh ordered the Israelites to make bricks. . . Read more

Date: 5/9/2013

The problem with the news is that it is always about what's happening today. It's almost never about underlying trends or larger meanings. So if you peruse the archives of major newspapers. . . Read more

Date: 5/9/2013

There is no question that the pace of military modernization by the People’s Republic of China is increasing. Investments are being made in all the areas that would support military actions against. . . Read more

Date: 5/8/2013

My colleague Dan Goure posted a commentary yesterday that captured the core weakness of China's economy. Although Beijing can stimulate high levels of growth through subsidies and other market interventions,. . . Read more

Date: 5/8/2013

Those who wish for a new “Chinese model of capitalism” fail to appreciate that Beijing already has an economic system that its leadership likes quite well. It is a mixture of the classic command system. . . Read more

Date: 5/7/2013

After years of skeptical media coverage, the turbulence surrounding the Pentagon's F-35 fighter program seems to be dissipating. That's happening partly because the Obama Administration restructured. . . Read more

Date: 5/7/2013

The U.S. Export-Import Bank, popularly known as Ex-Im, is a Washington success story. Established in the depths of the Great Depression to help manufacturers obtain financing for overseas sales,. . . Read more

Date: 5/6/2013

There are many observers who see China as the economic, military and even political juggernaut of the 21st Century. China’s economy has weathered the recent global economic downturn better than most. . . Read more

Date: 5/6/2013

Over the last dozen years, rotorcraft have been the most successful part of the Army's modernization program. Despite occasional mis-steps, the service has achieved major gains in performance at modest. . . Read more

Date: 5/3/2013

Word from Capitol Hill is that some members of the House Republican Conference have been unsettled by the strong public reaction to air-traffic delays brought on by sequestration. Until recently,. . . Read more

Date: 5/2/2013

North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program has developed faster than Washington anticipated. To make matters worse, Pyongyang has threatened to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the United States.. . . Read more

Date: 4/30/2013

Lieutenant General Michael D. Barbero probably wasn't as shocked as the rest of us when bombs exploded at the Boston Marathon on April 15. He has headed the Pentagon's joint agency for combating. . . Read more

Date: 4/29/2013

A dozen years ago, the U.S. Navy announced plans for three new classes of surface warships -- a land-attack destroyer, a missile-defense cruiser, and a fast coastal combatant that could replace frigates. . . Read more

Date: 4/26/2013

Thirty years after Ronald Reagan first articulated a vision of space-based defense against ballistic-missile attack, Washington still can't seem to get serious about the mission. In the same month. . . Read more

Date: 4/25/2013

After a dozen years of robust demand for their skills, companies providing technical services to the military are facing shrinking markets. One reason is the winding down of overseas wars, and another. . . Read more

Date: 4/24/2013

A generation ago, owning a daily newspaper was a license to print money. And being a reporter at a major daily was a big deal. You got paid top dollar to serve the public good, in the process generating. . . Read more

Date: 4/23/2013

Governments, like individuals, can suffer from the effects of too much of a good thing. This is the case when it comes to the degree and intensity of competition for Pentagon contracts. The current. . . Read more

Date: 4/22/2013

The preservation of air dominance is crucial to strategic deterrence and to the successful prosecution of modern warfare. General Charles Horner developed and implemented the air campaign in Operation. . . Read more

Date: 4/22/2013

As issues delaying the Pentagon's F-35 fighter program are gradually resolved, it seems to be securing broad support in the political system. Perennial critic Sen. John McCain of Arizona recently. . . Read more

Date: 4/22/2013
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